The Italian Job – Fratelli d’Italia set for a win, but will it make Meloni PM?

In which I re-enter the blogosphere by commenting on the Italian election

Hello everyone – it’s been a minute!

I thought I’d take my first blog post back from a totally unplanned hiatus to go over some of the stories and figures from one of the races we’ve been keeping a close eye on at YouGov Towers – the snap Italian general election being held today (Sunday 25th September).

I’ll take a stab at answering a few questions on how the race is shaping up and what the outcome might be under the headings below, with the caveat applied that there are certainly much more learned and respected Italian election observers out there than myself!

The context

Today’s snap election was called after the incumbent administration led by prime minister Mario Draghi collapsed in rather spectacular fashion at the end of July. Voting is happening up and down Italy right now, with polls closing at 11pm.

The two ‘big operatives’ in this particular race are Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), a right-wing party led by Giorgia Meloni, and Partito Democratico – Italia Democratica e Progressista (Democratic Party - Democratic and Progressive Italy), a centre-left coalition led by Enrico Letta.

Quite different in that regard to the last time Italians went to the polls. The 2018 election saw no overall coalition win a majority, but the populist Movimento 5 Stelle (the 5 Star Movement), or M5S for short, emerged convincingly as the largest party. Lega Nord (the Northern League) came in second.

M5S went on to led two successive governments and were involved in a third (and final of this parliament); first, a ‘populist coalition’ with Lega Nord, then a coalition leaning toward the centre-left with Partito Democratico, before finally a national unity government was then formed in 2021 under Draghi.

Now, as we come to the end of a contest dominated by economic concern and the hangover of the Covid-19 pandemic, we appear to be heading toward a significant victory for the Italian far right.

The results flow timetable

Hat tip to Leonardo Carella for spotting me the information here – definitely follow him for all the best analysis on the election results as they happen. Exit polls and early results are expected tonight, with the former released very quickly after polls close.

On the night projections using actual results tend to be fairly reliable, but the exit polling record is not all that strong. The result itself ought to be fairly clear by the small hours of Monday morning.

Where do the polls stand?

Italian elections are subject to polling embargoes from no fewer than two whole weeks ahead of the date itself, making them much trickier to call than other contests where published polling is allowed right up until the date of the contest itself (the UK, for example).

The last polling released before the blackout suggested that Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) had a decent lead over second-placed Partito Democratico, by a margin of around 25% - 20%. But the race was much closer just a few weeks ago, with some polling in August even having the centre-left ahead. M5S languish well behind in a third-place tie with Lega on around 10-13%.

What will the government look like?

The suggestion from the polling then is that we can expect Fratelli d’Italia to come out from today’s election as the largest party, but that does not necessarily make Giorgia Meloni a dead cert for prime minister. To do that, she will have to successfully negotiate her way to a parliamentary majority through coalition building.

Already, each of Forza Italia (current president and former prime minister: Silvio Berlusconi), Lega, and the minor party ‘Us Moderates’ have pledged to support Meloni’s bid for PM. A significant combined force, but their numbers alone may not be enough.

The latest polling had this right-wing coalition at around 46% of the vote, which probably translate into a parliamentary majority owing to Italy’s latest fusion of first past the post single member constituencies and multi-member elected by proportional representation, but it could also leave them just short if the chips align particularly badly.

If more support is required to make her prime minister, it isn’t clear who else Meloni could turn to in the parliament, based on current polling numbers and projections.

However, with almost all forces on Italy’s ideological right likely to make the parliament united behind her, and as leader of the party projected to have the largest vote share, her position is very strong.

Could the polls be wrong?

Of course. But they are more likely to be wrong in favour of Meloni’s coalition than in the direction of the centre left.

In 2018, the polling underestimated M5S’s vote share and slightly lowballed Lega, while overstating support for Partito Democratico. If anything, a polling miss which sees Meloni more comfortably inside the majority line is much more likely than one which sees the centre-left and M5S (re)take power.

Another underestimation of M5S is possible, which could theoretically harm Meloni’s chances (if it comes at the expense of the right), but it would need to be sizable to deny her a majority and specifically be at the expense of either FdI or their coalition partners.

Also, we must not also rule out the possibility of late swing – a late comeback perhaps for the centre left or indeed M5S. This would look the same as a polling miss in the results, but be driven by very different forces (actual change from two weeks ago to now, rather than a systematic measurement error).

Finally: Are Fratelli d’Italia far-right (in other words, are we really headed for a far right government)?

This is an interesting question. Fratelli d’Italia are certainly not far-right in the contemporary populist sense, in that they favour some very old school classical liberal economic platforms (for example: a flat rate of tax), and have no (expressed) plans to withdraw Italy from the European Union. This makes FdI distinct from other far-right parties such as Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National or the AfD in Germany (though the far-right across Europe have all softened their positions on Europe somewhat in recent, post-Brexit years).

On the other hand, they have some extremely hard-line positions on topics such as immigration (using boats to blockade the Mediterranean sea) and opposing gay marriage, and can draw their roots directly back to Italy’s post-war neo-fascist movement. Certainly, they are not a centre-right party, despite Meloni’s efforts to rebrand the party as such.

In terms of the governmental programme, the coalition involving FdI is definitely overall closer to the political centre than Meloni’s party itself. Each of Forza Italia, Lega, and Us Moderates would generally be described as to the left of FdI. It is likely then that some of FdI’s more far-right policies will not make it into the final governmental programme, and so it would probably not be accurate to label what we assume is Italy’s incoming government as ‘far right’ in its totality.

That’s all for now, folks - on to the results!