On assisted dying, and on Lincolnshire
Two for the price of one today as I explore where the public sit on today's vote, and what Andrea Jenkyns' intervention in Lincolnshire could mean for the Mayoral race there.
MPs are expected to vote on the second reading of the assisted dying bill at around about 2:30pm today. Ahead of that, I explored where public opinion sits - and where it has sat for quite some time - on assisted dying for Con Home. The first half of this blog is a copy of that.
The second half is an exploration of what I think the impact of former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns’ decision to stand in the Greater Lincolnshire Mayoral election next year as the Reform UK candidate.
Finishing today’s post off, I’m also going to give out a very strong recommendation for all my readers to get subscribing to a brand new Substack.
On assisted dying
It is still unclear at this time whether the proposed legislation on assisted dying will pass or fail at today’s hurdle. Even if were to get the nod this week and pass its second reading, it would create another flashpoint – one it may be even less likely to break through – after committee stage (and all the amendments and interventions which will likely follow).
The legislation as worded, if passed, would allow for those facing terminal illness to choose to end their own lives under certain specific criteria (relating to their condition and that of their life expectancy) and after having completed a due process involving the sign off from two doctors and a hearing from a high court judge.
Either way it goes, the result of the vote on Friday is expected to be very close. Assisted dying is no doubt a tricky issue, with strong feels and strong arguments on both sides. As such, and for other reasons, MPs are allowed a ‘free vote’ on the issue – not bound by party whips.
Nonetheless, Labour leader Keir Starmer has previously signalled his support for changes to the law in line with the proposals (though has not publicly given a position on this particular vote itself) in statements given as recently as just under a year ago.
Furthermore, as well as implied (if not expressed) leadership approval, changes to the law to allow for assisted dying enjoy strong support from the public. So strong in fact, that it crosses all manner of socio-political divides and stretches back to comparative political ancient history.
Since 2019, YouGov tracking data has shown consistent, 2/3 support for assisted dying in case of terminal illness. At the last measurement on 7th October this year, 67% of the public indicated that they thought the law “should be changed to allow someone to assist in the suicide of someone suffering from a terminal illness”. That number, as with the 13% who were opposed, has barely moved in what is now five years, according to our data.
But far more impressively, public support for changes in the law to allow for assisted dying in certain circumstances can be traced back almost 75 years. As highlighted by Ed Hodgson of More in Common, Gallup recorded support for voluntary death’ in the case of incurable illness was supported by the public by 55% to 24% in 1950.
Racing back to present times, we at YouGov tested a wide range of wordings and conditions and circumstances under which the public may support or oppose assisted dying. The current policy as it is proposed in the Bill enjoys support of 73% of Brits, with 13% opposed.
And this support cuts across whichever line you care to try and place upon it. By party, support for the legislation as worded ranges from 80% of 2024 Liberal Democrat voters (with 10% of them opposed) to 68% of Reform UK voters (19% opposed). Men (74%) and women (73%) are equally likely to support the changes (with 13% and 14% opposed, respectively). Older people (aged 65+: 72% support, 16% oppose) are more likely than younger people (aged 18-24: 72% support, 16% oppose) to support changing the law, but even then, younger people are very clearly in favour. The list goes on.
Which is not at all to say that the British public support changes to allow for assisted dying in any given circumstance. There are a number of hypothetical instances where the public are clearly against assisted dying being allowed, and MPs talking or thinking about ‘slippery slope’ styled arguments may well have this in mind.
When we asked if this should be allowed “for any reason a patient wants”, support dropped all the way down to 10% while opposition rose to 71%.
Equally, the public were not in favour of the suggestion that children should be allowed access to assisted dying (19% support, 51% opposed) nor when the patient wanted it for mental health reasons (16% support, 58% opposed). There are clear limits to public backing for patients choosing to end their lives.
Even so, by a margin of 55% to 20%, the public are in favour of someone choosing assisted dying when their condition was incurable and painful/debilitating, but not terminal.
All of which, those specific and perhaps extreme conditions aside, puts the current declared positions, and the expected outcome of the vote on Friday, quite far apart from public opinion. While Brits are very clearly in favour of these changes, MPs are heavily split.
We do not often see misalignment of this scale – and across all social and political groups, and over such a long period of time – between elected British political elites and the public they serve. Which begs an interesting question – why?
On Greater Lincolnshire
I actually lived in rural Lincolnshire aged 10-18, so it’s a place I can speak to with a lot of anecdotal and contextual knowledge as well as from a wider perspective of psephology and public opinion data.
The story here is that former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns has now joined Reform UK and is standing as their candidate for the newly created Greater Lincolnshire mayor. The election will be held in May next year.
I’d advise a bit of caution against some very hot takes I’ve seen about what this means for how the Greater Lincolnshire Mayoralty race will play out. Namely: that this nails on a Reform UK win of the mayoralty.
Not least because while, yes, this will be a boost for Reform and a clear indication that they are going to commit high levels of resources to this race, th3 mayoral election will be held under First Past the Post (at least until any forthcoming legislation tells us specifically otherwise). And that changes things in a big way.
First off, for Reform this makes total sense. Lincolnshire is amongst their most fertile possible territories. It’s traditionally very Tory, voted Leave in 2016, and there’s a lot of deprivation among its large rural and semi-urban communities - and a lot of anger/disillusionment about that.
They also of course have an MP in the region: Richard Tice (Boston and Skegness).
But personally, I think Jenkyns’ intervention makes this more of a three way race than a slam dunk for anyone. Jenkyns and Reform are much more likely to win over Lincolnshire voters who would have otherwise opted for the Conservatives, not Labour.
This is, by the way, true of Reform voter coalitions everywhere - they are overwhelmingly made up of previous Conservative voters. YouGov research after the 2024 general election highlighted that no less than 1/4 of Conservative 2019 voters opted for Reform in July this year. Just 3% of 2019 Labour voters made the same journey.
The Tories were probably best placed to win the Mayoralty pre-Jenkyns’ intervention, but Labour are by no means no hopers.
For sure, Lincolnshire has vast swathes of farmland, small villages, and general ‘not friendly Labour territory, but they have been doing very well lately in local elections in the county’s only city, Lincoln.
By “very well”, I mean successively holding on to control of council for over a decade, only ever losing a couple of seats at a time per election, despite some very tricky national circumstances and political headwinds. They currently control 23 seats out of 33 in Lincolnshire’s most populous area by some distance.
Labour also won back both the Scunthorpe and Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes seats at the 2024 general election - two typical ‘red wall’ areas.
They also did well in the North East Lincolnshire authority, at the expense of the Conservatives, in May.
With what will now be a split vote on the right, and under FPTP, Labour have a shot at coming through the middle. Now, I use the word shot deliberately. It will still be an uphill battle, but one which Reform and Jenkyns have, I think, made easier for them.
Much will depend on the strength of the Conservative campaign, who their candidate is (Labour have picked a very good candidate in former Grimsby Town FC Chairman Jason Stockwood), and how well their vote (and turnout) holds up against Reform pressure. If Nigel Farage’s party pick up serious momentum and flip higher and higher numbers of Conservative voters in Lincolnshire to their cause, then Labour may well beat the Tories but not come close to beating Reform.
We have real three-way contest potential, here, if all three parties decide they want to go for it and test each other out in these electoral battleground conditions.
Whatever happens, it will be fascinating to watch!
And a recommendation
Finally, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the fact that James Kanagasooriam, Chief Research Officer at FocalData, is now on Substack. James’ first post highlights an intriguing way of looking at cycles in the British political system using a 2x2 framework. I would highly recommend giving it a read, and giving James a follow.