Local Elections 2023: What to look out for as voters in 230 local authorities head to the polls tomorrow
Hundreds of wards across a range of fascinating Red Wall, Blue Wall, parliamentary bellwether, and ultra-marginal areas are up for grabs.
Somewhere around 7 in 10 English voters (h/t, Sam Coates) will have the chance to chose their local representatives tomorrow as village halls, pubs, schools, and churches across over 230 unitary, metropolitan, and district councils throw open their doors for a day of public balloting.
I’ll be working with the BBC psephology team, which forms part of wider election coverage squadron (and I mean, squadron – it’s an absolutely huge, brilliant exercise that goes into every single election results programme), who will be reporting on, analysing, and guiding the narrative of the results as they come in over the course of the 24 hours which follow polls closing.
The vast majority of the seats being contested on Thursday were last up in 2019, which is a very important baseline to keep in mind throughout not just this piece, but all the results as they come in overnight on Thursday through to Saturday.
If we cast our minds back to Thursday 2nd May 2019, we will recall a tumultuous time in British politics (even by our standards); Theresa May’s minority Conservative administration was stumbling toward its inevitable end, Britain was about to hold European Parliament elections despite having voted to leave the bloc almost three years before, and Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity was weighing as heavy as an anvil round a beleaguered Labour party’s neck.
The result of which was an absolute hammering for the Conservatives, and a thoroughly disappointing mid-term result for Labour in the local authority elections held that day (and a further kicking for both main parties in the EU elections contested at the same time, but not counted until some days later).
Both Labour and the Conservatives ended up on 28% of the ‘projected national share’ in the 2019 locals, representing respective drops of seven and one point(s) on the 2015 results for those same wards. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens were the big winners on the night (in 2019), racking up over 900 gains between them (704 for the former, 198 for the latter).
Which makes this a very tricky set of the results for both of England’s third and forth party to defend. For the Greens, it was a record performance. For the Liberal Democrats, it was a huge marker on their long and very much ongoing road to recovery from their 2015 national wipe-out.
Which, conversely, leaves both Labour and the Conservatives defending fairly weak baselines this time around. And weaker baselines are harder to fall from.
The Conservatives for instance lost around one-in-four of the seats they were defending in 2019, leaving them with just below 3,500 to defend this time around. It’s for that reason that talks of ~1000 losses for the Tories are being met with a bit of scepticism – that would be around one-in-three of every seat they were defending, from a bad set of results. To lose another 1,000 on top of the poor 2019 showing would be quite something.
That said, this fact is perhaps negated somewhat by the fact that Labour themselves of course did not have a great set of election results four years ago. Their equivalent national vote share did not dip so much as that of the Conservatives between 2015 and 2019, but they nonetheless lost just shy of 100 net councillors across England while being in opposition (which does not usually happen).
Any sort of significant swing to Labour versus that baseline would see them start to take seats numbering hundreds directly off the Conservatives.
Or, in other words, Labour could make some pretty good numbers of council gains without the Conservatives themselves necessarily having to fall too much further from their 2019 low (Labour just have to be going up).
Which brings me to the crucial point – our interpretation of the results tomorrow night (and Friday morning) should be guided by looking at the Con to Lab swing. Particularly – the Con-Lab swing in the projected national share (which we at the BBC psephology team will launch at some point during our coverage of the results on Friday). If Labour are on course for a General Election win within the next year or so, the proof will be in that projected pudding.
That said, swings within councils – especially councils covering key Westminster battleground areas – will also be good guides while we await the projected national figures.
The precise number of seat gains and losses, given the tricky 2019 baseline we are working with (for all four main parties), may not be an especially great indicator of either the overarching narrative of the local elections themselves nor the implications of this vote for a 2024 General.
So, while we await the BBC’s projected national share, which councils (and what sort of swings) should we be keeping an eye on to give us the best summaries of the locals themselves, and clearest indication of what might be coming down the track in the next House of Commons election?
It probably won’t surprise you too much that I will recommend many councils included in the YouGov 2023 battlegrounds projection, which the aforementioned Sam presented live on Sky News last week, as key councils to watch throughout Friday. They were, after all, chosen for a reason – there’s a good story in each of them!
Starters for 10
We’ll begin with Plymouth and Lincoln – expected to start declaring around half past midnight. Both are part of our BBC ‘key wards’ exercise, meaning we will be reporting on and analysing them in depth throughout our coverage.
In Plymouth, four Labour gains would give them majority control of this key battleground council which also covers the marginal constituency of Plymouth Moor View (currently held by Veterans Minister, Johnny Mercer).
Plymouth, electing in thirds, swings along with the national mood like a pendulum between Labour and the Conservatives at each election cycle, and will give us a good early read of how Labour might do across the whole contest. Something like an 8-point swing would be enough to hand Starmer’s party control, and in turn signal a good set of results to come for His Majesty’s Official Opposition.
Lincoln on the other hand is not one to watch in terms of changing control, but offers up an intriguing prospect as being one of the first councils to start declaring which maps onto a pretty reliable bellwether parliamentary constituency (of the same name).
The council itself is held quite comfortably by Labour, but the Westminster seat is held by the Conservatives. A significant vote share swing to Labour and seats falling in the affluent southern wards of this midlands marginal city would send alarm bells ringing in Tory HQ.
Moving to the midlands
We can then look forward to Worcester and Dudley (again, both covered by the BBC key ward exercise), which are expected to start declaring sometime at around 1:30am. Dudley will give us a tantalising taste of how the two main parties are faring right now in the midlands ranks of the Red Wall.
The Conservatives hold the council, and are in very little danger of losing it, and quite famously took the Dudley North constituency on a big swing in 2019. They have held Dudley South since 2010.
Significant Labour gains in Dudley would add to the growing sense of there being proper Labour recovery in the Red Wall. A 10-point swing on 2019 would push Labour up by around five seats, continuing their work from last year in terms of chipping away the Conservative majority. Such momentum at the local level would put the party in a great position to recapture Dudley North at the next Westminster election, and bring Dudley South back into play.
Worcester presents and altogether different, but just as important, yardstick for the next General Election. The council is one of the most razor thin Conservative-Labour marginals going, while the parliamentary constituency currently has a 13.3% Conservative majority and has been blue since 2010.
Any Labour parliamentary majority at the next will not be determined by their ability to win back the Red Wall – that only gets them effectively back to the situation in 2017 – but their success in flipping marginal constituencies mainly across the midlands which, unlike the aforementioned Lincoln, have been stubbornly Conservative for the last few election cycles.
In other words, Starmer’s path to Number 10 may begin with places like Workington, but the latter stages are paved the likes of Worcester.
The Conservatives currently hold 15 out of the 35 Worcester City council seats, running a minority administration. The council tipped into No Overall Control last year after the Tories lost three seats at that election. Labour are right behind them on 13, and need something in the order of a 10-point swing to be comfortably the largest party. A 15-point swing would give them overall control. If they pull that off, the Conservatives really are in trouble in marginal middle England.
Northern necessities
Next up on the ‘much watch’ list is Darlington, which last year started declaring at around about 4am. This unitary authority holds ‘all out’ elections every four years, so every single council seat is up for grabs. Which means, unlike councils electing in thirds, change in control between elections suddenly becomes much more likely (though in turn that means elections themselves are much less frequent, occurring once every four years).
In 2019, Labour and the Conservatives were neck and neck in Darlington, winning 22 and 20 seats respectively. Only a slight swing is required to make Labour the largest party, but a pretty good swing (something in the order of 8 points) is needed for them to win a majority.
As such, Darlington provides us with a great yardstick as to how well Labour’s recovery is really going in the Northern sections of that now famous Red Wall. Taking control of Darlington on Thursday would send a clear message that Starmer and his party are on the march in terms of taking their former heartlands in the North.
Blue Walls for baggy eyes
On Friday morning, results from the ‘Blue Wall’ start coming in with force. One of the key councils to look out for in these Remain voting, graduate-heavy, traditionally Tory shires will be Wokingham (another BBC key ward council), which is expected to declare at around about 12-midday on Friday.
Here, the Liberal Democrats need to be performing right at the top end of their expectations to take majority control of a battleground council with an already very nervy local MP looking over his shoulder at his Lib Dem challengers – former Conservative leadership candidate, Sir John Redwood.
Making four gains out of the nine opposition seats would give them exactly half the seats on the council, which would require something approaching a 10-point Con to Lib Dem swing. Taking majority control of Wokingham would be significantly harder, but not impossible.
Either result – effective or actual control – would suggest that the raft of recent parliamentary by-election wins and 2019 General Election second places across the South and East remain a rather ominous sign of things to come for the Conservatives across these regions at the next Westminster contest.
Another Con-Lib Dem contest to look out for will be East Cambridgeshire, which should have declared before Wokingham comes in. I hear from sources that the Liberal Democrats are very confident of winning here, and indeed taking majority control would require Ed Davey’s party to win just two more seats than their 2019 showing.
With this council ‘all up’, this is something the Liberal Democrats definitely should be doing if they are going to have a good night across the board. If they do not take East Cambridgeshire overnight on Friday, that will be an important early(ish) sign to us that the Lib Dems may be struggling to build on their 2019 (and indeed more recent) gains.
Keep a close eye out for Swindon on Friday morning, too. Labour need to take just four seats off the Conservatives to knock the council into No Overall Control. A 12-point swing ought to do just that trick. With the marginal Swindon South and bellwether Swindon North constituencies covering the council, strong Labour performances at the local level would again be an encouraging indicator for Starmer’s ability to build a majority at the next General Election.
Greening Suffolk?
Elsewhere, the (not-so) lesser-spotted ‘Green gain from Con’ phenomenon which has started becoming common feature in local politics in the East of England may reach fever-pitch at around about the same time as Wokingham comes in, with Mid Suffolk also expected to declare around then.
Here, the Green Party are hoping to take control of this very rural, Brexit-leaning local authority from its current ‘No Overall Control’ status, which was created after the Greens took no fewer than seven seats off the Conservatives in 2019. Again, this council is ‘all up’, making changes in power much more likely.
And finally…
Those catching the afternoon results flow will want to keep an eye out for Walsall, which I expect to declare at around 4pm. If Labour are having a particularly good set of elections, they may well take the 11 seats necessary on the 15+ point swing required to take control of the council. That would spell big, big trouble for the Conservatives in middle England.
We will already have a very good sense of how likely that is by the time Walsall even begins declaring, but it could well be the end of a very sweet cake for Labour come the end of the count.