Bye-bye by-election drama?

This month’s Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections loom large over a beleaguered administration – but will they be around to see the consequences?

[to the tune of Tom Jones – Delilah]

On 23rd June, voters in both Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton will head to the polls in two by-election contests which threaten to pile further misery on a government struggling to gain any momentum or command of the political agenda.

The two constituencies are worlds apart on some levels; one, a northern, mostly-urban seat with comparatively high unemployment and workers employed in routine occupations; the other, a very rural south-western seat with comparatively high levels of agricultural workers and pensioners.

But they do share some similarities – in a perfect microcosm of the nature and magnitude of the victory the Johnson managed to achieve – they both voted Leave by around 60% in 2016, and were both won in 2019 by the Conservatives.

Losing both, as the betting markets currently expect, would not put the government’s majority in danger by any stretch of the imagination, but going from a parliamentary advantage of 80 to 68 in just two and a half years would be noteworthy, to say the least. Potentially disastrous for an administration walking on electoral eggshells (then again, how many times have we heard that before).

And as we draw closer to the contests themselves, Sir Graham Brady’s ever enlarging smile provides the perfect backdrop for some potentially tantalising by-election drama.

Defeat for the Conservatives in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton would demonstrate Tory weakness in both the ‘red wall’ and their traditional heartlands (they’ve held Tiverton and Honiton and both its predecessors for 100 years). Two very different seats, and potentially the same outcome.

It would add to the sense that this government is increasingly capable of leading the Conservative Party to defeat everywhere, just a few years on from winning in places they had never previously touched at the last general election.

But despite the fever pitch expectation levels, one factor lurking in the shadows threatens to diminish the wow factor potential that both Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton possess.

Namely, the government which faces down the Labour charge in Wakefield and the Liberal Democrat surge in Tiverton and Honiton may not be the one which stands before us today.

There is a chance that Boris Johnson could face and fail to win a no-confidence vote and be replaced as Prime Minister by the time June 23rd rolls around. That would require an ever-faster reorientation of the Conservative leadership than the wrestle for power after Theresa May announced her resignation in 2019, but is by no means out of the question.

No confidence votes can and do happen very quickly after the 1922 Chair announces that the letter threshold has been reached, and a leadership campaign can and has been cut very short once a clear contender for the vacancy emerges.

A new government in place ahead of the by-elections would have two very important effects on the narrative and potential outcome.

Firstly, Johnson is currently a major drag on the Conservatives’ popularity; his personal favourability rating fell below that of his party’s way back in January. If the Prime Minister, the lightning rod of so much public mistrust and frustration, were to be removed, the Conservative electoral brand would instantly be boosted.

While it would be unlikely to make much of a difference to the result in Wakefield, where Labour re-taking control of a marginal seat they previously held since 1932 seems almost certain given the current political and economic climate, it could stop the Liberal Democrats short of the majority line in the Tiverton and Honiton.

Secondly, even if both seats were to be lost, the framing around such event – and even the attention paid to it – would be greatly reduced if it happened on the watch of a brand-new administration, only just beginning to get to grips with the task of running the country.

A new government could quietly brush both losses under the carpet, blame the previous incumbents for the results, and set about setting a fresh news agenda with any or each of new appointments, policies, or commitments.

On another note, as the by-election build-up gains pace, I’ve started to notice Tiverton and Honiton being described as part of the ‘blue wall’.

Now, I have absolutely no intention of forcing people toward a particular definition for what is ultimately supposed to be a loose, catch-all term for a certain type of seat. But if we are looking for a categorisation of vulnerable Conservative seats which stays true to the original form of James Kanagasooriam’s ‘red wall’ model, it’s hard to see how a seat like Tiverton and Honiton fits into that.  

The Devon constituency much closer resembles North Shropshire than Chesham and Amersham; it voted Leave in 2016 by some margin, is heavily rural as opposed to being suburban or in a commuter-belt, has a below average concentration of graduates, and has the Liberal Democrats starting off in third (as opposed to second) place behind Labour.

Each of those factors will count against the Liberal Democrats as they seek to overturn a 45% gap between they and the Conservatives. They also count against Tiverton and Honiton being included in any meaningful definition of ‘blue wall’ that I can see.

On the other side of the electoral equation, counting in the Liberal Democrats’ favour there in June 23rd will be the ‘get the vote out’ and party mobilisation opportunities afforded by a strong presence on the local council (Mid Devon), a foreboding sense of “we’ve done it before” (*nods at North Shropshire*), and what will surely be a severe Conservative turnout headache.

Voter apathy for by-elections is high at the best of times, with turnout dropping by anything north of 20% from previous General Election contests. Here, we have the added factor of an incumbent party for whom around 25-30% of their voters from the previous election consistently tell pollsters that either they would not vote or would not know who to vote for if a General Election were being held tomorrow.

Combine typical voter disengagement in by-elections with high levels of disaffection among Conservative voters, and it seems evidence that turning out the Tory vote on June 23rd will be a huge uphill struggle.

Nonetheless, as favourable as the conditions might be for a Liberal Democrat win, winning in Tiverton and Honiton will be much harder than a ‘blue wall’ framing might suggest. This would be much more a traditional ‘Liberal Democrats doing well in by-elections’ story than anything around Brexit or demographic realignment.

There are many complex forces and factors operating in British politics right now; some old, some new. And they are distinct as they are concurrent.