A very quick look at today's locals
A 'cheat sheet' for the results as they come in over the next few days, and some thoughts on ' will Sunak do a Sanchez?'
Hello everyone!
First time writing in a little while…
I wanted to spend a few moments today sharing some thoughts on this year’s local and mayoral elections. Compared to last year, there are a much smaller set of councils. Both the Conservatives and Labour are defending around about 1000 councillors each, with a total of around 2700 seats up for grabs.
Tonight, and tomorrow, and Saturday…, I’ll be working with the BBC psephology team under Professor Sir John Curtice, producing TV’s most up-to-date and thorough analysis of the results data as it comes in.
The polls are still open as I write, so I won’t say anything about the results at this time (beyond already-published, pre-election day expectations). There have also already been some fantastic preview pieces (including this one by Rob Ford) and some modelling done (including this here by Stephen Fisher), so I won’t venture into that much either.
But I thought I might spend some time pulling together some of the above resources into a bit of a ‘cheat sheet’ for everyone watching the results of today’s contests with keen eyes.
I will also share a tale of an incumbent government polling poorly and under pressure heading into local elections, catching everyone off guard by calling a general election immediately after the local results came in.
What days and times are the results due?
Counts will begin as soon as polls close at 10pm tonight, and continue right through until Saturday evening. Streams of results will come in three main batches:
Some local authorities will declare between the hours of around 11pm tonight and 5am tomorrow morning. Ones to look out for in this time block are two top Conservative-held Labour targets in Rushmoor and Redditch (where Labour could gain a council from the Conservatives) and North East Lincolnshire (where Labour are looking to make serious moves against the Conservatives in a council which has remained stubbornly blue in recent cycles). We will also get the results of the Blackpool South by-election.
Friday will see more local authority results, including Labour targets in Walsall, Milton Keynes, Cannock Chase, and Hyndburn, as well as key Liberal Democrat targets in Wokingham and Elmbridge. We will also discover the fate of Ben Houchen in Tees Valley by early afternoon, as well as the result in the newly created East Midlands mayoralty (Labour are expected to do well here). There will also be great interest in the Bristol results, expected by early-evening, where the Greens are seeking to take control of their third-ever council (after Brighton and Mid Suffolk). Results are expected to flow on Friday beginning from around midday through until about 10pm.
On Saturday we will get the final rounds of results beginning at around midday and concluding in the early afternoon. Most notable results on Saturday are the Norwich council election (where Labour are seeking to re-establish control) and the big ticket London and West Midlands mayoralties.
What are the expectations?
The Conservatives are defending a really strong set of results this year as the last time the majority of these seats were contested was back in the vaccine-bounced induced heyday of Boris Johnson’s premiership in 2021.
Though it is important to note, as Ben Walker explains below, that there are good number of seats up from different baselines - including as far back as 2019. That includes no less than 15% which were contested in 2023.
While we expect a pretty substantial degree of Con to Lab swing versus the 2021 baseline, any seats last fought in 2023 will not see anywhere near as much of a dramatic shift - Labour were, as we all recall, well ahead in the polls a year ago (as they are now) and the Conservatives lost over 1000 seats at that local authority contest.
As such, some swings and some councils may look to be behaving very differently to others as the count comes in, but, as ever, much of that will most likely be explained by the relative baselines.
Overall, the expectation across pollsters, media, and the commentariat are:
Significant Conservative local authority seat losses to be reported over the course of the next two days - anything up to and around 50% of what the Tories are defending may fall.
Not many actual councils changing control, owing to the particular authorities up in this cycle - there aren’t a huge number of councils which mathematically can (or are likely to) switch between parties (or to or from ‘no overall control’).
Some very tight mayoral races, including some likely Conservative holds in the West Midlands and Tees Valley. Labour expected to hold London.
Our 2024 local elections YouGov MRP model anticipates that both Hyndburn and Milton Keynes are set to fall into Labour hands, with each of Walsall, Tamworth, and Thurrock also possibly following suit.
Below is a table of figures I have managed to gather for overall expected Conservative losses. As far as I know, there are only two which have been made public.
EDIT: Britain Elects (Ben Walker) published their forecast at 10pm on Thursday, which estimated 478 Conservative loses.
Will Sunak ‘pull a Sanchez’?
In my Con Home article last month, I explored the possibility that Rishi Sunak may be tempted to try and replicate the success of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in the days following May 2nd.
After his incumbent-governing PSOE party suffered a huge defeat in the Spanish local elections, Sanchez’ response was to catch everyone - even some in his own party - off guard by immediately calling a snap general election contest.
His move was designed to totally wrong foot his opposition, and force them into making rushed and early calls regarding potential alliances, candidate lists, and policy positions.
The plan worked perfectly, with Sanchez’ opponents on the political right eventually denied a parliamentary majority, allowing him to continue governing in a new (and expanded) coalition.
Could Sunak be tempted to try and do the same to Labour?
The latest YouGov Westminster vote intention poll released today probably pours cold water over that idea. We have the Conservatives down on 18% of expressed headline vote intention, just three points ahead of Reform UK. Surely there can’t be much of a temptation for Sunak to ‘go early’ based on those numbers.
But there is another way the locals could spring a surprise summer date on us: if the results are suitably bad then Sunak may well be forced to call an early election to avoid being victim of Tory-MP regicide.
Rebels are already promising a flurry of ‘no confidence’ letters going in to 1922 Chair Sir Graham Brady in the coming days. A poor showing in the vote today, they argue, ought to be the ‘final straw’ in determining whether the Conservative Party should stick or twist with their current leader.
Could a real ‘worst expectations’ result over the coming days push more MPs to put letters in and force Sunak’s hand in a last ditched effort to retain control of the party?
All the briefings we have had from the party, and those close to various operations within it, would suggest Sunak has absolutely no such plans, and that the rebels do not have sufficient numbers to force his hand.
But this is British politics. You never quite know what is around the corner.